The unhealthy information for bettors: one more double-digit underdog gained outright in Week 11. The Titans fell by the hands of the Texans, who used a robust defensive efficiency to stunningly stymie one of many AFC’s high groups.
If you occurred to guess the Texans moneyline in that game, energy to you. But extra bettors that thought the Titans could also be a straightforward alternative in opposition to the unfold given their latest successes had been foiled, as underdogs put forth one other sturdy week and continued to make even the savviest gamblers tear out their hair.
Heading into Week 12, the NFL panorama appears to be like like a large number. There are 12 groups with data higher than .500 within the AFC. The NFC has simply six, however the Wild Card race in that convention is shaping as much as be a battle among the many present five-win groups.
The 2021 NFL season has been as unpredictable as ever, and that won’t change. But a minimum of some groups are beginning to carry out and emerge as potential contenders. The Cardinals proceed to carry out nicely most every week. The Chiefs and Buccaneers are additionally beginning to spherical into type. And every division chief is a minimum of beginning to draw back because the league will get prepared for its stretch run.
But hey, that is nonetheless the season of the sudden, so anticipating issues to calm down within the last month and a half of the season may show silly. As such, it is nonetheless crucial that bettors look for overrated and underrated groups, discover sleepers and know the most recent harm information to reap the benefits of NFL odds, traits and lopsided point spreads that might show fruitful.
And if there’s an opportunity to seek out one other Texans over Titans kind upset, that might show to be enormously worthwhile. That stated, there are not any double-digit underdogs but in Week 12. In truth, these strains are probably the most bunched up of any to this point, with none exterior of the Thanksgiving slate standing above six-point spreads as on Wednesday, Nov. 24. So, if there’s an upset, it will not be as surprising as a number of the different ones we have seen this yr.
For odds for the three Thanksgiving video games in Week 12, click on right here. For extra skilled NFL predictions, take a look at Sporting News’ picks straight up and in opposition to the unfold for Week 12.
WEEK 12 NFL PICKS: Against the unfold | Straight up
Table of Contents
NFL odds for Week 12
Below are the most recent Week 12 NFL odds, together with point spreads, cash strains and over-under totals for every game, in response to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Last up to date: Friday, Nov. 26.
NFL point spreads Week 12
NFL cash strains Week 12
NFL over-unders Week 12
For NFL Thanksgiving game odds, click on right here.
NFL finest bets for Week 12
Seahawks (+1) at Washington
Full disclosure: we tried betting on the Seahawks as underdogs final week in opposition to Colt McCoy and the Cardinals. That did not work, as McCoy and the Cardinals frankly embarrassed thte Seahawks, defeating them 23-13 at dwelling and dropping them far exterior the playoff image with a 3-7 document.
So, why are we going again to the nicely and trusting the Seahawks once more? Well, the reasoning is straightforward. There has been a huge swing within the unfold of this game that might find yourself favoring Seattle.
The superior unfold for this game was considerably in favor of the Seahawks. They had been favored by 3.5 factors on the street in Washington. Now, the unfold has swung 4.5 factors in the wrong way. Yes, that’s partially associated to the Seahawks’ struggles. It’s additionally attributable to Washington’s latest success, because the Football Team is coming off back-to-back wins in opposition to the Buccaneers and Panthers.
Still, a 4.5-point swing within the unfold is a main improvement. The Seahawks as soon as had been anticipated to win this game by greater than a area aim. Now, they principally simply should win (or tie) to cowl this unfold. That’s some good line worth, particularly contemplating that Russell Wilson is 36-11 straight up after a loss. Granted, he misplaced final week regardless of coming off a defeat, however that ought to simply amp him up extra in a matchup in opposition to a protection that has confirmed weaker than the Cardinals’ on a year-long foundation.
It’s additionally value mentioning that Wilson’s finger harm may have one more week to heal, and he’ll get an additional relaxation day forward of “Monday Night Football.” That may show necessary for him as he appears to be like to regain his dominant throwing type.
Is this a danger? Sure, however the Seahawks should bounce again at some point, proper? And whereas informal bettors might imagine Seattle is finished, they don’t seem to be toast but. As lengthy as Russell Wilson is enjoying, he’ll do every thing he can to win. This figures to be a possible probability to do this, although the Seahawks’ protection should discover a strategy to problem Taylor Heinicke.
Titans (+6) at Patriots
The Patriots have been wonderful in latest weeks, successful 5 consecutive video games and overlaying the unfold in every of them as nicely. However, all good issues should come to an finish, and for the Patriots, that will occur in opposition to the Titans.
Tennessee has had its share of points in latest weeks. They have not coated in back-to-back video games and had been simply manhandled by the lowly Texans. That stated, they need to be prepared and motivated to bounce again from that as an underdog.
The Titans have been elite as an underdog this yr. They have truly posted a 5-0 document in opposition to the unfold as an underdog, so they appear to thrive as one beneath Mike Vrabel. They may have an opportunity to remain within the game in opposition to the Patriots, and overlaying a six-point unfold appears doable.
Of course, the Titans will want some operating again to step up rather than Derrick Henry, be it D’Onta Foreman or Dontrell Hilliard. They may even want Ryan Tannehill to keep away from errors. He threw 4 interceptions in opposition to the Texans final week however had simply eight on the yeart within the weeks previous to that.
If Tannehill can keep correct and keep away from massive errors, the Titans ought to transfer the ball a bit on the Patriots.
Speaking of New England, they don’t seem to be an explosive offense, so the Titans match up wwell in opposition to them. They have the fourth-best run protection within the NFL and permit a median of simply 97.8 dashing yards per game. They may be overwhelmed aerially, however Mike Vrabel could also be williing to take extra probabilities to maneuver Mac Jones off his spot and make him uncomfortable.
Vrabel may additionally look to take the beneath routs on the sphere away and drive Jones to beat his protection deep. The Patriots’ sign caller is among the most correct passers within the league, however his deep ball continues to be a piece in progress. He has accomplished simply 13 of 38 passes past 20 yards for 408 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions.
Either manner, that is simply too many factors to provide a staff just like the Titans. They are 8-3 for a motive and have carried out extraordinarily nicely as an underdog. New England may win this game, but when they get distracted in any respect by an necessary upcoming divisional tilt with the Bills on “Monday Night Football” in Week 13, it is going to be laborious for them to stave off competitors from the Titans.
NFL POWER RANKINGS: Cowboys slip after loss vs. Chiefs
Falcons (-1) at Jaguars
The Falcons have been dreadful in latest weeks in opposition to a few high-caliber opponents. They had been outscored a mixed 68-3 in opposition to the Cowboys and Patriots and seem like trending within the fallacious path after trying like an early playoff sleeper.
However, the Falcons are enjoying the Jaguars in Week 12, and Jacksonville matches the profile of the groups Atlanta has overwhelmed this yr.
So far, the Falcons have overwhelmed up on a number of the NFL’s worst competitors. They have wins over the Giants, Jets, Dolphins and Saints. Three of the 4 groups rank within the backside eight of Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric , which “breaks down your entire season play-by-play, evaluating success on every play to the league common based mostly on quite a lot of variables together with down, distance, location on area, present rating hole, quarter, and opponent high quality.”
In different phrases, it ranks how good sure defenses are in comparison with the remainder of the league. And largely, the wins the Falcons have are over groups with poor defenses. Their solely loss to a staff ranked within the bottom-12 in DVOA got here in opposition to Washington in a tightly-contested battle.
Where does Jacksonville rank when it comes to DVOA? They test in at twenty eighth within the NFL, and they’re averaging simply 1.8 sacks per game, good for the sixth-fewest sacks within the NFL. That ought to give Matt Ryan sufficient time to make performs within the pocket and earn a victory.